China's luxury market Report in 2024

In 2024, the luxury market in Chinese mainland will face challenges, with sales declining in the first three quarters and improving in the fourth quarter. Sluggish consumer confidence and the outflow of Chinese tourists are the main reasons. Changes in the macroeconomic environment have led to increased market uncertainty, and the recovery of outbound travel is expected to further put pressure on the mainland market. Luxury brands need to have a clear strategy and execution plan to meet the challenges. Despite this, the large consumer base in the Chinese market is still seen as an important growth engine for global luxury consumption. According to research by Bain & Company, sales in China's luxury market will decline by 18%-20% in 2024, basically returning to 2020 levels, with the beauty and personal care category performing relatively well, while the watch and jewelry categories performing the worst. Duty-free sales on Hainan Island declined, while overseas luxury goods consumption grew strongly. The market performance in 2025 is expected to be the same as in 2024, but with the implementation of domestic economic and consumption stimulus measures, the market is expected to recover modestly in the second half of the year. The report was authored by partners and associate partners in Bain & Company's Consumer Goods & Retail practice, thanks to the contributions of senior consultants from the Shanghai office.